Covid-19 is far more deadly than the flu—so much so that the comparison is rather ridiculous.
Let me start off with this: China has implemented mass quarantines, causing great damage to the economy (after brushing off this issue, just like many people here are inclined to do). Japan, which prizes education, has shut down its schools. Do you think they would do that if this weren’t potentially a really big deal? So we should probably stop and say “hey, uh, this might be serious.”
Flu vs. Covid-19
The flu kills 30,000 to 60,000 people in the US annually, so it’s by no means “not a big deal.” It’s a big deal, and we do a lot to prevent those deaths. We have a vaccine, for example, which about half of the US gets.
This is how mortality rates compare for the flu and covid-19.
You might be saying, “But there are so many undiagnosed people! The mortality rates for covid-19 are inflated!” True. There also lots of people who are sick and about to die, but not yet dead. Those numbers are trying to take that into account.
What’ll you see here is that everyone is much worse off with covid-19 than the flu. But things are looking really bad once people get into their 40s and 50s.
When this gets into nursing homes, you’re looking at a ton of deaths.
Diamond Princess Cruise data
If you brush off this study because you don’t think they can properly take into account the undiagnosed rate, then let’s look at this another way:
The Diamond Princess cruise had 3700 healthy people on board, and (presumably) one person with covid-19. Now, a few weeks later, seven people are dead so far (and potentially more deaths to come—the most recent death was yesterday).
Forget about the rate of diagnosis and the number of asymptomatic people. Let’s just look at the raw numbers. 7 deaths out of 3700 people. Extrapolated out to the general US population, that’s 600,000 deaths. That’s a lot.
You might object that cruise ship passengers are all old, but the average cruise ship passengers is 47 (vs. a US average age of 38). So older, yes, but not elderly. And, cruise ship passengers are likely in better health than the average person their age.
There is also a lot of reason to believe that the Diamond Princess cruise ship numbers are lower than the general population would be:
- One person (presumably) killed seven people in just two weeks or so of spread. If given another few months to spread, how many more people would have been infected and killed?
- This is only the deaths so far. More people could die in the next few weeks.
So, yes, all indications are that this could be a really big killer.
It’s not just the immediate mortality rate either. When we have, potentially, millions getting sick, where are they going to go? How will we care for them? Hospitals already have a shortage of beds. We already have a nursing shortage. Doctors already have long waiting lists.
How are we going to care for other people who need medical care — for cancer, broken bones, etc — when our medical system is overwhelmed with people in critical condition from covid-19?
We also have a large number of uninsured in the US. How will they pay for medical care when they get hospitalized?
What we’re looking at is, potentially, a large number of deaths from a variety of causes, and people financially devastated.
The point? Yes, this is scary. If it’s a big enough deal for China to do mass quarantines, and for Japan to shut down its schools, we should probably take this seriously here, too.
We didn’t in the Spanish flu, and a ton of people died as a result.
It’s a big deal, and it shouldn’t be “uncool” to say that.
Now, right now, covid-19 isn’t killing that many people in the US. It’s a new disease, and it just hasn’t gotten the chance to infect that many people.
But if we don’t get covid-19 under control, this will not stay the case. This might kill an astounding number of people, particularly when it infects a retirement home.
The thing with epidemics is that it didn’t work to be like, “ya know, let’s wait until this is actually killing lots of people, then let’s take it serious.” No, we have to take it serious now, to prevent it from being a massive killer.
If we do things right, only a small number of people will die, and people will look back and roll their eyes at the fear. “Gosh, that didn’t end up being a big deal at all! What an overreaction!” And they’ll be wrong. But better wrong than dead.
Sources:
Estimated Influenza Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States - 2017-2018 influenza season (Estimated Influenza Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States - 2017-2018 influenza season)
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